Stand Or Fall

Remember this chart from my early October post?  I used it to make the argument that the top in the DJI had not occurred in May of 2011 because the decline into June was not impulsive.  Well, I still stand by it.

DJI SUMMER 2011

This is now important because the DJI has now exceeded its July high, which I mistakenly called the truncated top of Primary [B].  Obviously, this means that the DJI is NOT in Primary [C]!

So, where might it be?  Three possibilities that come to mind, from most to least bearish.

1.  Still in Intermediate (Z) of Primary [B].

DJI BLUE

2.  In a Primary [X] wave of cycle b or w.  Specifically, in Intermediate (B) of Primary [X], implying a (C) wave down to complete [X].

DJI ORANGE

3.  Finished with Primary [X], and starting Primary [Y] of cycle b or w.  This is a count that I believe Binve is showing, or something like it.  To my eye, it gives us a very foreshortened Primary [X] wave.

DJI GREEN

I really don't know which of these three it might be.  I'd like to go with the blue count, given that the other two counts look a bit ridiculous in the DAX, the MID, and others.  However, the orange and green counts certainly look valid when you look at the SPX and DJI in isolation, and are bolstered perhaps by the contortions one has to go through to make the 2002 to 2007 rally into a five wave impulse.

To illustrate my point, the DAX weekly is shown, with notes on the chart.

DAX WEEKLY

If this count is correct, we should be very close to the top of Intermediate (2) of [C], as shown below.  This chart gives two possible breakouts of (2).  In black, we have a triple three w-x-y-x-z, which would be very close to a top.  In magenta, we have a simpler a-b-c zig-zag, with Minor C of (2) evolving as a potential ending diagonal, as shown by the boundary lines.  This could obviously take longer to resolve, and give us a bearish headfake signal quite soon as it progresses.

DAX 60 MIN

I'm interested in which DJI count you think is valid.  Please record your vote by color with the reaction buttons below.

"An empty face reflects extinction
Ugly scars divide the nation
Desecrate the population
There will be no exaltation

Stand or fall
state your peace tonight
Stand or fall
Let's state it tonight

It's the euro theatre
It's the euro theatre
It's the euro theatre"


Final poll tally:

Blue:  8
Orange:  2
Green:  0

Thanks for voting.