The market today was excruciating. I looks to me as though we are still in a triangle. Given the way it is taking its sweet time, I am promoting its degree to that of a Minor wave. Whether we are done with [d] of the triangle is an open question.
RUT 30 MIN
RUT 60 MIN
DAX 10 MIN
DAX 60 MIN
TNX still looks like it wants to advance to higher yields, which would be consistent with a sharp thrust out of this Minor X triangle in equities.
TNX 10 MIN
Mr. Binve had an interesting chart up concerning the BPSPX, which I am copying here. He uses it to support the idea that the rally off of the March 2009 lows has yet to complete. You can read his reasoning here.
BINVE'S BPSPX
I respect Mr. Binve's thinking, so a chart like that gives me pause. However, what he calls Primary [B] of Cycle w, I call Primary [5] of Cycle V of Supercycle (III). The peak BPSPX reading in the middle of his [B] wave is where I put my Intermediate (3) of [5], which is where it would be expected to be in an impulse wave. Furthermore, I would expect a Primary [B] wave to end on a high BPSPX note, which his [B] did not. The fact that the record May 2011 BPSPX reading occurred near the top of what I call Primary [B] of Cycle a further supports my case. (Recognize that Binve and I are irreconcilably split regarding whether the 2002 to 2007 advance was I five wave. I say it was, he says it wasn't.)
Finally, on a non-technical note, I stumbled upon this little gem of an article at EUBusiness.com.
Actually, I searched it out after hearing a very interesting BBC Business Daily interview with Anton Boerner, the head of the German exporters' BGA industry federation. His message is that Germany would like to keep the Euro as a currency, but not at any price. He says German taxpayers are done paying for the mistakes of others, and that what is important to German business is free trade and the European Common Market - much more so than a common currency. He cites the examples of Poland, the Czech republic, and Switzerland as countries who do very well in the common market without sharing in a common currency. Furthermore, and I found this fascinating, he raises the example of the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) recent devaluation of the Swiss Franc as an example of how an overvalued currency could be managed. Undoubtedly, this is in anticipation of what would surely be a strong Deutsche Mark if Germany left the EMU.
I can't seem to upload the interview, or link directly to it, but you can download it from http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/bizdaily. It is the November 14th episode entitled "German Anger."
I have often thought that the endgame for the EMU could be a German exit. Obviously, a strong DM would result and would hurt German exporters. However, there would also be the need to recapitalize banks due to massive losses on sovereign debt, and this could lead to Bundesbank easing, ala the SNB. One wonders if Germany is looking for excuses to leave, despite all of the Eurocentric rhetoric out of Merkel. As Rik points out, she is a politician with an election on the way. If anger arises in Germany over the cost of a seemingly endless bailout of the PIIGS(F?).... Alternatively, if the ECB changes its stance regarding LOLR to sovereigns, going against the Bundesbank ....
