Kinda Burnt

Recent market action has me rather bored.  I really don't have much to add to the post I put up late Wednesday night.

In fact, I got bored enough to waste some time with a little EW.  In doing so, I did come across a pattern on the USD/JPY that may be worth watching.  If this pattern has any validity, (and I have no idea if it does) we would see a rapid retracement of V here very soon.  Otherwise, [5] in V is going to be longer than [3].

USD/JPY MONTHLY

(FWIW)

I'm certainly not married to this one....

Rollin', Rollin', Rawhide

Just going to post a bunch of charts and let you draw your own conclusions.

FTSE

MONTHLY

DAILY

65 MIN

15 MIN

CAC

MONTHLY

DAILY

65 MIN

15 MIN

RUT

FIBS

EMA'S

NYSE

EMA'S

FIBS

STUDIES

SPX

EMA'S

FIBS

HILO

WLSH

EMA'S

DJT

EMA'S

FIBS

DJI

EMA'S

IXR

WEEKLY

IXY

WEEKLY

PIGS BOMBS BONDS (OOOPS)

GREEK 2Y

GREEK 10Y

PORT 2 YR

PORT 10YR

ITALY 2 YR

ITALY 10 YR

IRISH 2 YR

IRISH 10 YR

HUNGARY 10 YR

Greek CDS rises, bonds underperform Germany

Greek yield spread hits 800 bps, periphery suffers

EURIBOR

3 MONTH

 

MY TAKE: 

• FTSE may have topped.
• NYSE EMA's rolled over with close below 5 day SMA.  No other US indices shown have done this.
• Probably going to get one more push up in most US indices.
• Leading Consumer Sectors at MAJOR resistance levels.
• EU debt crisis is NOT over, and EURIBOR rise should be alarming.  Remember LIBOR in Oct 08?
• QE II:  It's not how fast you pour water into a funnel that determines its outflow rate - it's the width of the neck.  (You can pump all of the liquidity into the system you want, but if that is not the limiting factor, you're wasting your efforts.)

DJT - More Fib Relationships

I am going to breakdown and put up an EW count for the DJT.  I am not doing it with much respect for EW rules, but more as a way to label certain legs of this rally.  In that way, I can show you some interesting fib relationships that are occurring here, and correspond to the harmonic fib relationship I showed you in the last post at 4844.

Looking at the advance from March 2009 as the [B] wave of a of (a) of [IV], I am dividing it into two legs.  The first was complete in the fall of 2009, and the second began in November of 2009.  If we call the first leg (W), the current (Y) is just over .618 of (W).  Furthermore, within (Y), W and Y have similar fractals.  Y is .786 of (W) at ~4844.  This level is also lateral resistance from April, as well as the spring of 2008.  It is also very close to the .786 retrace of all of [A].  If we go meaningfully above this 4850 level, Y = W all the way up at 5144, which is a very significant lateral resistance level.

DJT DAILY

DJT - Another Fib Confluence Approacheth

Got another tight fib confluence approaching for the DJT at 4840.  Last one failed rather miserably, despite its technical beauty.

DJT 60 MIN

FTSE and EUR-USD

I almost didn't do this post.  I started looking at what I had for the FTSE, and I am not sure I really have much of value to say about it.  I am going to show you a monthly chart, that shows the breakout above lateral resistance, and where further resistance may lie.  I'll also show you a daily fib chart that gives a possible yellow target zone for this rally.  It does not really fit with the monthly resistance levels.  Finally, I have a 60 min chart that shows the deteriorating technical strength of this rally, as well as the hellacious overlap in this index.  I am not even going to attempt an EW count on this mess.  Bottom line, the monthly chart would support a good 5% or more upside potential.  The daily fib chart and the 60 min would seem to suggest an imminent double top.

FTSE MONTHLY

FTSE DAILY FIBS

FTSE 60 MIN

For the Euro-Dollar, I have two fib views to look at.  The first goes back four years to show the importance of the 1.42 to 1.44 level.

EUR-USD 4 YEARS

The second chart zooms in on the fibonacci mess on the right.  Next to the fib levels, I show some harmonic fib relationships that may come into play.  I also give my projected target range for this advance in the yellow box.  Please note, the lettering seen on this chart is NOT EW notation.

EUR-USD ZOOM

I know I promised you an IBEX chart, but I am going to break that promise tonight.  Let me just say I do not want to see it above 11200 for years to come!

SPX AND NYSE - More Fibbin'

I wanted to take a look at various technicals for these two indices.  I'll shy away from EW, but look at MA's on various timeframes, as well as harmonic fib relationships, and some momentum indicators.

Starting with the NYSE, the monthly shows a possible test of the descending 50 Month SMA on tap.  That could mean as much as 4% more upside.

NYSE MONTHLY

The weekly shows us retesting the descending 200 week SMA, as we did in April.  That would imply a 3% rise from here.

NYSE WEEKLY

On the daily chart, various momentum indicators are signalling that the current rally is tiring.

NYSE DAILY

The Summation Index may be rolling over, indicating an approaching top of some degree soon.  I may early on this call.

NYSI

This 60 minute fib chart shows some interesting fib relationships that may make for a large double top here soon.  They do suggest modest upside to come.

NYSE FIBS

Finally, Babaro's most excellent tracking method has yet to confirm a trend change, but looks to be trying awfully hard to do so.  I think I can, I think I can....

NYSE (BABARO TRENDS)

Moving on to the SPX, the picture is similar, although some of the SMA's are a little tighter.  Looking at the monthly, the 50 month SMA looms 2% above us.  You can see how nicely we tested it in April.

SPX MONTHLY

The weekly also shows an important descending 200 week SMA, this one only 1% above us.  This SMA also seemed important in the April timeframe.

SPX WEEKLY

The 60 minute fib chart shows that we are currently in a band of possibly important fib confluences.  For a bigger picture view of some possibly meaningful fib relationships, I highly recommend you take a look at this post from Grand.

SPX FIBS

SPXHILO continues to issue an increasingly strong topping signal.  (See this post for more background.)

SPXHILO

However, Babaro's system is still going strong, with neither of the EMA's showing any sign of rolling over just yet.  A sharp decline could change that in a big hurry, but the point is that it hasn't done so yet.

SPX (BABARO TRENDS)

My sense is that the topping process continues, but is probably much closer to its conclusion than many market participants would think.